Happy Thanksgiving; there’s no more oil

As Michael T. Klare explained in “More Blood, Less Oil” (not online) in the current issue of n+1, the geologist M. King Hubbert noticed in the 1950s that an oil well’s rate of production rises and falls in a bell-shaped curve. Thus the sum product of any group of oil wells must also rise and fall in this shape. Reading the data available in 1956, Hubbert guessed that the U.S. production of oil would peak in the early 1970s. He proved to be right.

When will the the entire world’s production of oil peak? There’s no doubt that it will. Klare reports that the Department of Energy estimates the middle of this century but the Princeton geologist Kenneth S. Deffeyes thinks that “The peak will occur in late 2005 or in the first few months of 2006.” In fact, as a post on Mitch Gould’s blog advises, Deffeyes not long ago issued an even more specific date: Thanksgiving 2005.

Deffeyes, who worked with Hubbert at Shell, freely admits that “it is a bit silly” of him to have chosen such a precise date, and no doubt he’s done it to draw a bit of attention to his point, which does not depend on such details. It is, however, sobering to realize that on a day not far from tomorrow, if not tomorrow specfiically, we will have taken as much oil out of the ground as still remains below it, and that the future flow of it will dwindle.

Next of Kin

On 12 May 2005, hurriedly and to the dismay of many art lovers, the New York Public Library sold Asher B. Durand’s famous 1849 painting Kindred Spirits in a closed-bid auction. It was bought by a Wal-Mart heiress, who’s taking it to a private museum in the Arkansas town where Wal-Mart has its headquarters. Earlier this week in the Wall Street Journal, Lee Rosenbaum reported new details of the library’s decision-making and called the sale “A Betrayal of Trust.”

At Sotheby’s on 30 November 2005, the library will sell off another chunk of its artistic patrimony. (HTML note: To browse through the catalogue online, you have to register with Sotheby’s, but registration is free.) In this batch, John Singleton Copley’s portrait of Mrs. Theodore Atkinson and her pet squirrel is the one I’ll miss the most.

By coincidence, a new article by H. Daniel Peck in the winter 2005 issue of American Literary History takes a close look at Durand, and Kindred Spirits in particular. (HTML note: The article isn’t freely available but most university libraries will have access to it.) Peck preserves a scholarly neutrality on the controversy surrounding the auction, but several details in his article bring home what New York has lost. He calls it “perhaps the most iconic of all American landscape paintings” and points out that it has graced the cover of the Norton Anthology of American Literature since 1979. Peck sees in the painting analogies to the “romantic empiricism” of Thoreau and an allegory of Durand’s own development as an artist, in particular, his relationship to the more celebrated painter Thomas Cole. Peck suggests that in Kindred Spirits the poet William Cullen Bryant is a surrogate for Durand:

In this picture, Cole takes a tutorial stance toward the other figure [Bryant], looking down at him from an elevated portion of the promontory and pointing out the lessons he has learned from the Book of Nature. The other figure, however, may or may not be listening. He’s not returning Cole’s instructive gaze but instead looking across the stream at a Durand-like rock formation, from which he may have learned very different lessons (p. 703).

Peck’s endnotes remind one that the New York Public Library holds Durand’s manucript papers—another reason the painting belonged at that institution. They also reveal that in 2007 the Brooklyn Museum of Art will mount the first major exhibition of Durand’s work in recent memory. Indeed, some of the most intriguing observations in Peck’s article are those relating Kindred Spirits to earlier sketches by Durand, in oil and graphite, several of which he reproduces. New York has lost Kindred Spirits just as Durand is finally coming into his own. The 2007 Brooklyn exhibit will be bittersweet.

The Bastilles of Eastern Europe

According to the Washington Post of yesterday, 2 November 2005, the CIA has a network of secret prisons located in foreign countries, where it holds roughly a hundred prisoners in “dark, sometimes underground cells,” where they are subject to the agency’s infamous “Enhanced Interrogation Techniques” and have no legal rights whatsoever. The reporter, Dana Priest, wrote that one prison had been located in Thailand, since closed, and another in Afghanistan, still in operation though relocated. She also noted that at least one of the “black site” prisons had once been “a Soviet-era compound in Eastern Europe.” The Washington Post decided not to name the Eastern European nations where it had secret prisons, because Washington officials “argued that the disclosure might disrupt counterterrorism efforts in those countries and elsewhere.”

Of course I immediately wanted to know whether any of these Eastern European bastilles might once have held V_clav Havel or his fellow Czech dissidents. The answer seems to be no. In Lidov‚ noviny yesterday, 2 November 2005, a short article offered this reassurance:

According to reliable sources, the facility is not situated on the territory of the Czech Republic. The Minister of the Interior Franti__ek Bublan stated that roughtly a month ago the American government asked Prague whether it would host several individuals held at the Guant namo base, but without success.

“Of course it was a matter of prisoners who had nothing to do with Al Qaeda. We were asked whether we would host several individuals in our country in the asylum process,” said Bublan, explaining that these people would have been threatened in their nations of origin. According to him the Czech Republic responded negatively on account of the many security risks.

Today the news is a bit more definitive. Human Rights Watch has told the Financial Times that they believe the secret prisons are probably located in Poland and Romania, based on their tracking of the registration numbers of airplanes believed to be operated by the CIA. Romanian officials would not comment; Polish ones denied it. Today’s Lidovû(c) noviny repeats the Financial Times‘s reporting, adds that the Polish newspaper Gazeta Wyborcza has also named Bulgaria as a participant, and reiterates Bublan’s denial yesterday of Czech participation. LN reports the denials of Polish officials in a bit more detail than the FT does: “It would be an attack on our security, an attack on our nation, and I don’t think such a thing could have happened,” said Zbigniew Wassermann, in charge of secret services in Poland’s new government.

I’m relieved that the Czechs are not touched by the disgrace and wish that I could think as well of my own country.

Moon hits Earth; poultry breeder inconvenienced

I am as besotted as the New York Times seems to be by the polar-view map of the melting Arctic that the newspaper reprints every few days. Staring at it does not make any more comprehensible to me the notion that it is melting, and that the polar bears who fail to evolve into dolphins in the next few decades will all drown. Also bewildering is the thought that the Northwest Passage is going to thaw open. I suppose I should have been prepared for this eventuality by the news, a few years ago, that Mount Kilimanjaro will soon be brown, unless someone covers it in white canvas. It’s nonetheless hard for me to assimilate. No ice up there. Will the last orts of Sir John Franklin finally surface in the melt-off? Maybe it’s time for one last expedition.

Wonderful prospects of cognitive dissonance were opened by the Times article last week detailing the rush by corporations to stake a claim to Arctic shipping routes and oil fields. If you’re an energy company shill, and your team’s official line is that the world is not warming, how exactly do you explain what you’re doing up there, investment-wise? There’s great irony in the contrast between the pettiness of profiteering and the world-historical grandeur of the vanishing of what we always, in elementary school, mistook for an eighth continent.

As it happens, I recently stumbled across a literary precedent for such irony. In London a few weeks ago, Peter and I made a pilgrimage to the office of the reprint house Persephone Books, where we admired the 1930s-era railroad posters on the walls and purchased half a dozen titles. I was unable to resist The Hopkins Manuscript, by R. C. Sherriff. As a publishing enterprise, Persphone aims unabashedly at women readers; most of its titles are by women, and those by men often are often concerned with domestic life. The Hopkins Manuscript, written in 1939, was thus a bit of a puzzle, as a Persphone choice. Not only was it written by a man, but it’s a work of science fiction. Civilization comes to an end, because the Moon crashes into the Earth.

I can’t say how gratifying it is to have a well-written book about the Moon crashing into the Earth printed in the flawless elegance of the Persephone series, with the usual finely chosen endpapers (after a 1932 fabric whose pattern evokes an eclipse, with a touch of the secret emblem from Escape to Witch Mountain), beautiful cream pages, and crisp type. And after reading it, I did see the link to the Persephone vision. The 1930s railroad posters in their office are the key; the Hopkins Manuscript is a portrait of England in that moment, where the end of the world has the function of releasing a camera’s shutter. The impending Moon is an allegory of fascism, though less schematically, I think, than the Martians are an allegory for imperialism in Wells’s War of the Worlds. The world doesn’t end at all suddenly, and there’s pathos and, surprisingly, comedy in the decline.

From the Arctic point of view, it’s the comedy that’s relevant. As an amateur astronomer, Edgar Hopkins learns that the Moon is on a course of collision long before the public does. The secret makes him feel terribly important—much more so than the fellows down at the pub appreciate, to his pain. Of course this is hardly a surprise, because they had earlier failed to appreciate his achievements as a breeder of prize hens. With a reasoning not unlike the modern would-be plunderers of the Arctic, Hopkins decides that since the crash will likely dislodge a lot of crockery, he will sell all his Great Western Railway Stock and buy as much as he can of Wigglesworth & Smirkin, manufacturers of cups, saucers, plates, and dishes. For all his venality and narcissism, one ends up liking Hopkins, as much because of his provincialism as in spite of it. It’s hard to resist someone who claims not to be that excited about meeting a post-apocalypse member of Parliament because, as a breeder, he “had met, at different times, almost every famous personality in the Poultry Times.”